Big Crystal Balls( Com-moon sense) - for Economists and Experts Alike - have failed them miserably!~

Big Balls in Cowtown, Out Perform the Experts -- Crystal Balls that is! (thanks Bob Wills)

Well, Glory be, here we are on April 22 and the AP recognizes, finally that the Global Economy is going to shrink in 2009. I am not an economist. but I have been saying that the US and indeed the world was headed for another world-wide depression. A spokesman(an economist) at the IMF, indicatede IMF funding is expected to drop(b 1.3 or 1.9 percent) and this IMF spokesman said: "By any measure, this downturn represents by far the deepest global recession since the Great Depression."

Well, some of us saw this coming last year and didn't need a crystal ball -- just some Com-moon Sense Big balls in Cowtown down h'ea in Houston.

The AP article noted that the decline for 2009 is juxtaposed to a predicted .5% growth it had estimated in January. Who in the hell did the IMF think it was kidding in January? They must have had no sense of what was really going on and all they had was a "cow in the moon" view of reality. (1)

Meanwhile, last week the G-numbers group of nations met and went mad apparently, expecting to throw 1.1 trillion in joint g-20 agreed spending to stave of this economic downturn. The U.S. has committed spending since Barak Obama took office, of about 3.5 Trillion dollars, and forcast commitments to spend about 13.1 Trillion dollars(this fiscal year). I noted early this week as observed by the Daily Reckoning Mogambu Guru, that just the 13-T is 4980% of the amount of gold stored at Ft. Knox(at 1k per oz).

I also noted that Obama out spent all 8 years of the Bush Administration in less than 40 days. I should have noted that the proposed spending in deficit that is proposed(13.1T) outspends all of the preceding Administrations since the ratification of the Constitution in 1789.

I don't need big balls or a crystal ball to say that Barak Obama and Co. are the perfect recipe for disaster.

Let me see: If I get out my crystal ball (looking back at 1929 - 1938, I an forsee, ah, yes -- a great depression, made worse by massive government spending in programs that don't work, won't solve the problem but will saddle all future generations with required spending on social programs (Socialist programs) that would immediately become "ENTITLEMENTS" and thus become the greatest partof the budget and Non-discretionary spending. Let me ask you: Do you want socialized medicine? Do you really?

Let me see: In China the reports(not the official ones tell us that China is in Dire trouble, which means that the Pacific Rim is in trouble as well. Reportsout of China indicate riots, closed factories, people imprisoned and a grassroots take over of a complete industrial complex that had to be put down by military forces of the province. For China to meet it's needs, it's economy must grown by .9% to be able to fund the oncoming job seekers coming of age and seeking employment each year. This spells trouble for the Pacific rim and Asia in general. I am not speaking here about the burdgeoning growth of the Indian economy nor it's participation in various technology industries, remotelyalbeit but staffing many functions of the technical marketplace(support and other technical infrastructure shipped off-shore by US Firms because they sought far cheaper labor).

Let me see: Back in the US, people are losing their jobs, and hence, we have had a sub-prime mortgage failure rate of drastic proportions--and we have not seen the worst yet. As reported in my previous entry, we are heading into new rounds of mortgage failure as we move into the middle of 2009. The Daily Reckoning predicted this downturn would last for two years or more.
When people lose their jobs, they make ends meet. They stop their own discretionary spending and further contribute to the downturn in the consumer economy. Which means they are not going to purchase technology, will cut back on what they have. What affect might this have on the economic forcast for counties like: India? Other pacific rim emerging countries in the techno-biz?

An economist at IHS Global Insight estimated a loss of 10 million jobs in 2009 (US and Western Europe) would occur.

THE US IS NOW LOSING approxmimately 600 thousand jobs per month thus far in 2009.

All of this is further empatus to the downward cycle of the economy, the stock market and the consumer generation which is out there today, earth day, howling at the moon!

Get out the crystal ball your own damned self: All of this will cause markets to sink lower, sell-out of existing stock, cutback in R&D, and the a worsening of the consumer society in the west. Meanwhile, it appears to me that all of the predictions of moving into recovery were based on American Consumerism to buy us out of the depression -- Moondoggle-Boondoggle.

Let me see: Can you repeat after me? Such a recovery Ain't Gonna' Happen. I guess it's time to join the wolves coyotes and even my son's dog Theo and Howl at the Moon.

Sources besides the AP Article: (Dai's Com'moon' Sensem AND review and persual of various news outlets, financial news letters such as The Daily Reckoning, Whiskey and Gunpowder and other publications, Barron's Weekly, the Daily Racing Form, Human Events Magazine, The New American etc...even from the odiferous, such as The American Thinker)